Online Commodity Futures

Archive for October 2nd, 2009

One of the most popular technical analysis indicators is the simple moving average also known as SMA, if you learn how to use these correctly they can be a very useful tool to help you to make good trading decisions.

The 50 simple moving average, or 50 SMA, is simply the sum of the last 50 values for each period, divided by 50, this is a moving window, as time moves on so does the average. Notice that I used the word period because this indicator works on any time period in exactly the same way.

It can be used on monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 30 minutes, 15 minute and on whatever time period you want to monitor and trade. Although the SMA is the most widley used there is also the exponential moving average or EMA. This is a weighted version of the formula using the mathematical exponent function to give more weight to the more recent values, this has the effect of making it a much faster average that many traders like.

The truth is that it probably does not matter if you used the SMA or the EMA, what does matter however is that you use one or the other and then be very consistent with it. Do not switch between them, it is more important that you learn to trust your chosen indicator then a slight difference in its value.

The SMA is oftern used to determine what the trend of the stock is, depending on the value used it could be a short term, medium term or long term trend. An important point to note is that moving averages are really only useful when the stock is trending, if the moving average is flat, i.e. horizontal on your chart it can become very choppy, this is a good time to not trade.

The general rule is that if the current price is above the SMA the trend is up, if below the trend is down. This is very important to understand because it forms the basics of trend trading and trading with the trend.

For the short term trend many traders like using a 5-8 SMA or EMA, here is a trading secret, never trade again the direction of the short term tend, actually this is really just common sense when you think about it.

Moving averages can often act as support or resistance, many traders use the 15, 21 or 30 SMA for this purpose.

There are a number of other very important moving averages that you need to know about, these are the 50, 100 and 200 SMA, and this mainly applies to the daily and weekly charts. A lot of big money players in the markets, the mutual funds, investment banks etc use the 50 and 200 SMA as support and resistance, if they decide to buy or sell based on these you need to follow suite, the 100 to a lesser extent. These are very useful averages to watch if you trade EFT’s like an Oil ETF.

A very useful tip is that when a stock breaks through one moving average it will often move all the way to the next, for example, if a stock breaks the 30 it may move to the 50 before finding some support or resistance.

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A lot of people have made a lot of money trading commodity futures and commodity options. It offers a person scope to earn a huge sum of money with a very limited trading capital investment. How have these people done it? Well, I don’t know if I can answer that question just yet, but here are your beginner’s guidelines to commodity trading.

The Basics

When you trade in the commodity futures markets, you don’t actually buy something. Instead you buy its future contract purely on the assumption that the price of the commodity is likely to move upward in the immediate future before the expiry of the contract. You buy to gain profit from this increase in price. For example, if you buy gold futures at $650 now, and the price at the expiry of the contract is $660, you would have made $10 on the commodity futures contract without actually trading in or buying any gold.

People choose to trade in commodity futures and futures options because it offers them an opportunity to get very large leverage on their invested capital. If, for example, you had about $20,000 you would be able to buy an S & P 500 stock future of the index. The same in actual equity stock could cost you $350,000. So, you get leverage of 17 times on your $20,000 if you invest in futures. This has huge ramifications where return on investment is concerned. If you make $20,000 dollars on an upward trend on this contract, you would have ended up with a 100% profit on your investment! This is as opposed to investing in actual stock worth $350,000 and getting $20,000 as return on investment. Puts things in perspective, doesn’t it?

What Are The Risks Involved?

However it’s not all roses out there or everyone would be trading and doing nothing else. The truth is that there are many inherent risks in doing commodity futures trading too. The key is the risk to reward ratio. A lot of people are not as concerned about the return on their money as they are of their invested money returning. Greater the risk, the greater is the return. If you’re wrong, you lose just a few thousand dollars trading carefully over a long period of time, whereas if you don’t have the luxury of patience, you may lose a fortune quickly in just a few large trades.

Hence, one must remember that there is a huge risk of loss in commodity futures trading. To limit this loss, people use what is known as a ‘stop’ or a ‘stoploss’. These are orders placed to square off your position if it turns against you in any trade to limit your loss. These are considered an essential part of commodity futures trading, as you never know what unforeseen event lurks ahead that has the potential to wipe out a large chunk of your invested capital. To make money, one has to accept that you will lose money also. If you have a good trading system, and use stops in your trades, you are sure to succeed over time.

Sometimes markets move so fast that your stop loss will not be hit. This is due to the broker not being able to trade the market for you because of these limit moves. It is for this reason, many only choose futures options. 

Commodity futures hold immense potential in making for you huge amounts of money. However, one needs to be careful, and invest funds wisely and with patience.

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