Understanding Speculation And Impacts On Investment Returns

Investments can also be speculative investments. It becomes speculation when the investment is made without adequate analysis. Or the investor is only interested in short-term investments. This type of investment carries a higher risk as they depend on fluctuation in the prices of the assets where the price does not directly reflect the real value of the asset.

Speculation can be beneficial as well as harmful. When a produce is in short supply and the demand high, the speculator invests in buying the produce with the hope that the increased short supply will drive up the price. The positive part is that the produce will last longer. The negative impact is that the increase in price and the short supply will exclude a section of the consumers. The speculation can also lead to hoarding of the produce that can induce an artificial scarcity denying consumers access to the produce. The higher price also gives incentive to the producer to produce more or import the produce.

Speculative buying and selling influences the price of the asset. Increased buying leads to higher price. The price falls with speculative selling. The price may even decline below its real value when the selling is more and in a short time. Speculative buying could drive up the price. When an even higher increase in price is anticipated, this fuels speculative buying driving up its price very high. This could follow with a loss of confidence leading to panic sales making the price crash to the bottom. This becomes a bubble that burst. A major economic activity is the foreign exchange market. Speculative investment is high in this market. There are many ways to understand how the market operates. One way is to learn from the many publications some of which are the London Forex Rush, Forex Trading Made E-Z, Learn Forex Live, System and Forex Breakout strategy.

Unstable prices results from short-term volatility due to increased speculative investment. This leads to what is called as economic bubbles which are run away uncontrolled speculation. Economic bubble bursts seems to have increased in recent times. This has even had a cascading effect leading to the larger economy going on the down slide. There have been a number of suggestions made to control or regulate or even ban speculative investment. Banning speculative trading in certain commodities such as oil is one concrete suggestion. Yet another suggestion is to impose a penalty of 1 percent or lesser on short term speculation in currencies as a kind of tax. Named after James Tobin, the proposed tax is called Tobin Tax.

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